Session - Global Warming Facts and Prespectives
Chair: David Wasdell
Monday, 11 July 2011
10h50 - 12h30 (Auditorium 2)


Abstract #43: On the use of the Constructal Law to study Climate change
Francis Meunier, Marc Clausse, A. Heitor Reis, Adrian Bejan

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A simple and transparent model, based on the constructal law, is used to study climate change as a response to changes in atmospheric properties (albedo-ρ- and greenhouse factor –λ-). This model is first used to study the climate response to present changes in albedo and greenhouse factor. This allows comparing, in terms of energy imbalance and temperature, the climate change observed between 1880 and 2003 and that given by the model. Then, the model is used to predict future climate changes depending on several scenarios for the increase of atmospheric properties. This approach proves that the constructal law can help in defining new scenarios in relation to carbon emission policies. As an example, two scenarios are therefore tested and it is shown that the 2K critical temperature increase can be avoided only if a global low carbon energy pathway strategy is decided well before 2060.

Abstract #105: Discovery of the Major Mechanism of Global Warming and Climate Change
Paul Cadelina Rivera

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Statistical analysis of the number of destructive earthquakes versus global temperature and greenhouse gases revealed very significant correlations. This is a strong indication that the frequent occurrence of major earthquakes had increased earth’s obliquity and induced both global warming and emission of greenhouse gases (GHG) in recent years. It is further shown by a simple model developed here that seismic-induced oceanic pressure could enhance the obliquity leading to increased solar radiative flux on earth. The possible increase in the planetary obliquity was substantiated by the solar radiation model SOLRAD, which simulated an associated increase of absorbed solar radiation. The model also revealed a net poleward gain of solar radiative flux with enhanced obliquity which could be the cause of the observed polar amplification of global warming and climate change. Multiple regression analysis also showed that the sudden obliquity change since 1995 played a major role in the temperature rise and GHG increase, and coincided with the 10 warmest years on record. Climate simulations conducted with the EdGCM also showed that enhanced obliquity causes increased solar radiative flux, increased air and ocean temperature, and decline of ocean ice cover. The enhanced obliquity and absorbed solar radiation could have accelerated the melting of ice sheets and glaciers, exposure and degradation of permafrost regions, increased CO2 respiration fluxes from soil, and forest fires during summer. This study confirmed in several ways that earthquake-pressured obliquity change, and not greenhouse effect, is the major mechanism governing global warming and climate change presently occurring on earth.

Abstract #150: A Warming Trend in the Largest Industrial City, Korea
Byeong-Kyu Lee

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This study investigated a change trend of ambient temperature over the past fifty years in the largest industrial city, Ulsan, Korea. This study analyzed the data of the daily ambient temperature, which has been monitored for the past fifty years, in the local meteorological station of Ulsan. For a comparison purpose, this study also analyzed ambient temperature changes in other cities which have different latitude and in a neighboring city which has similar longitude and latitude in Korea. The annual average temperature and the annual lowest temperature based on the analysis of daily temperature records in Ulsan have increased 1.3 and 2.9 ℃, respectively, for the past fifty years. The increasing trends of the annual average temperature and the annual lowest temperature in Ulsan showed a higher slope and a much higher slope as compared those in the neighboring city. In the analysis of the daily average temperature monitored for the recent ten years from the areas with different environmental characteristics in Ulsan, the industrial area showed the highest average of 15.9℃, followed by the downtown area of 14.6℃, the coastal areas of 14.5℃, the suburban area of 14.0℃, and the rural area enclosed by mountains of 12.8℃. The number of cold days (winter period) and the number of hot days (summer period) less than 5.0℃ and higher than 20.0℃ in daily average temperature, respectively, continuously decreased and increased, respectively, over the past fifty years. The decreasing trend in the cold days showed a higher slope in the cities with lower latitude than those in the cities with higher latitude.

Abstract #44: How to effectively protect the Earth from global warming by means of advanced Sunlight Shield Equipment
Hideyo Murakami

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Lots of studies are proceeding in the world to prevent global warming. The author has proposed a set of Sunlight Shield Equipment composed of a flat balloon of which surface has a mirror function. When the Sunlight Shield Equipment is set in the stratosphere, its surface reflects sunlight to space. Temperature of the Earth could be controlled by controlling an amount of sunlight energy which the Earth receives from the sun. In order to decrease sunlight energy by one percent, it is required that a large number of the Sunlight Shield Equipment should be evenly distributed, set and operated in the stratosphere over the Earth. When the area of a set of the Sunlight Shield Equipment is equal to 0.5 square kilometer, about ten million sets of the Sunlight Shield Equipment are necessary, and a huge amount of cost is required. In this case, the gross area of ten million sets of the Sunlight Shield Equipment is equal to about 5.1×106; square kilometers. Therefore, it is desired that a mean value of the Earth temperature decreases more effectively. This paper proposes a set of advanced Sunlight Shield Equipment, and clarifies its effective operation.

Abstract #88: Global Warming in Bangladesh Perspective: Temperature Projections upto 2100
Mohammad Adnan Rajib, Md. Mujibur Rahman, Edward A. McBean

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Some of the major dimensions of climate change for Bangladesh include increase in surface temperatures, associated lowering of ground water table for higher evapotranspiration rates, longer spells of droughts in significant parts of the country and so on. It is therefore, essential to comprehend the future possible scenario of climate change, in terms of global warming. Climate models are the main tools available for developing projections of climate change in the future. There are a number of mathematical models of global circulation that indicate expectations of future climate scenarios. Needless to say, no model will give a perfect projection of future climatology or observations as the inherent physics and associated underlying assumptions of the components like atmospheric, ocean, sea-ice and land-surface might be different for different climate models. As such, it is best to validate two or more climate models to enable a choice to produce the most appropriate projection to be used in climate-scenario generation for a small country like Bangladesh. This paper features the development of Multi-Model combination of future surface temperature projections for Bangladesh on monthly basis, for each of the year from 2011 to 2100, using both global and regional climate models. Four selected IPCC ensemble Global Climate Models (GCMs), namely CGCM3.1, CCSM3, MIROC3.2 and HadGEM1 as well as a Regional Climate Model (RCM) called PRECIS have been applied in this regard. In this paper, evidence of increasing temperature levels in Bangladesh has been found from the climate model projections, as evident from observed meteorological data. The long term historical trend in temperature matches fairly well the future possible temperature trends predicted by the GCMs for a scenario of emissions arising from a future world of rapid economic growth, balanced across energy sources. Again, by developing the projections of a particular climate models under different emission scenarios, the extent of increase of temperature in Bangladesh is found to be highly sensitive to the extent of emissions to the atmosphere. From the multi-model combination (RCM and GCM projections) of future average temperature change with respect to 1971-2000, it can be observed that the winter months in Bangladesh might show relatively more warming in future, than the monsoon and pre-monsoon months. However, the trend of temperature increase might continue to increase invariably in every month.