Program - Day 2
Tuesday, 12 July 2011
9h00 - 10h00
Keynote address 3: "CARBON CAPTURE AND STORAGE; GLOBAL POTENTIAL AND STATUS", John Gale
Chair: Francis Meunier

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The presentation will aim to provide an outline what is going on around the world on CO2 capture and storage (CCS) at present. There is a substantive amount of work going on a both the commercial and pilot scale that allows us to develop responses to key questions on CCS that are frequently asked by stakeholders. The paper uses the information that is available to answer some of the key questions that stakeholders ask about CCS. It is impossible in the time available to answer all questions that are outstanding, so three questions have been selected which are:

Is it a new technology?
Is it safe?
How do we know the CO2 will stay underground?

The paper shows that there is a significant body of related historical data from projects in the USA and South Africa on CO2 separation and capture, from the USA on CO2 transport and from the oil and gas industry on the injection and storage of greenhouse gases (CO2 and CH4) in geological formations dating back as far as the early 1970’s. In addition there are 4 major industrial scale CCS projects starting with Sleipner in 1996 that is building up a considerable. knowledge base on CCS. With all this historical knowledge the author draws the conclusion the CCS cannot be considered as a new technology. Rather it can be considered as established technology sectors of industry, however it has not been demonstrated yet at an appropriate scale in the power sector, but developments underway mean that should happen within the next 10 years.
On the issues of safety and storage integrity, with regard to capture there have been no reported major incidents with separation/capture plant, which can be interpreted as indicating that there is not a problem. Statistical information on the 5000 km CO2 pipeline network in the USA going back to 1986 indicates that CO2 pipelines are “mile per mile safer than natural gas pipelines”. However to balance this statement it is noted that CO2 pipelines are generally sited in remote regions in the USA and if the mileage of pipelines increases to level comparable to that of the US natural gas network incidents are likely to increase. Information from storage formations such as Sleipner and others to date does not indicate that any CO2 has migrated out of the formations into which it was injected. Using natural reservoirs of CO2 as analogues suggests that if migration to the surface along faults does occur then this will only result in localised environmental impacts. Again the author infers that there is no significant evidence to suggest CCS is unsafe that it will stay within the reservoir into which it is injected.
As we move forward to large scale deployment of CCS, the information gained from projects will be invaluable is developing answers to questions from stakeholders many of which are sceptical about CCS.

Biographical Sketch

John Gale has been associated with the energy industry for some 30 years. He joined the IEA Greenhouse Gas R&D Programme in 1999 and became General Manager in 2008. Prior to becoming General Manager, John managed the Programmes activities on Non-CO2 greenhouse gases, greenhouse gas abatement in energy intensive industries and geological storage of CO2. He was one of the co-coordinating lead authors on the 2005 IPCC Special Report on CO2 Capture and storage. He is currently Editor-in -Chief of the International Journal on Greenhouse Gas Control.

10h00 - 11h00
Session: Carbon Emissions
Chair: Mourad Bezzeghoud

Abstract #51: A projected turning point of China’s energy-related CO2 emissions
Bo Xu, Qie Sun, Ronald Wennersten, Nils Brandt

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The purpose of this paper is to examine whether there is an environmental Kuznets curve (EKC)relationship between China’s carbon dioxide (CO2) per capita and GDP per capita in the period of 1980-2008. The timing of the turning point of China’s CO2 per capitais to be further estimated if an EKC relationship exists. In regression results, anatural logarithm-quadratic relationship is found between CO2 per capita and GDP per capita which supports EKC hypothesis.In addition, the results also show energy consumption has a significant impact whereas trade openness ratio has an insignificant impact on CO2 emissions in China.The turning point of CO2 per capita suggested by the EKC relationshipappears before 2020 which seems earlier than the practicaltrajectory of China’s CO2 emissionsbecause of China’s wealth gap and its role in the international trade. Therefore, further efforts could concern reducing domestic income inequality in China and negotiating on making clear responsibilitiesbetween China and developed countries for corresponding CO2 emissions from China’s products exports.

Abstract #29: Soil CO2 emission to the atmosphere from Furnas volcano (São Miguel Island, Azores archipelago)
Fátima Viveiros, Teresa Ferreira, Carlo Cardellini, Catarina Silva

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Furnas Volcano is a dormant central volcano located in the eastern part of São Miguel Island (Azores archipelago, Portugal). At present secondary manifestations of volcanism comprise fumarolic fields, thermal and CO2 cold springs and soil diffuse degassing areas. More than two thousands soil CO2 flux measurements, based on the accumulation chamber method, were carried out at Furnas Volcano between 2005 and 2009 in order to produce CO2 degassing maps that show the spatial distribution of soil gas anomalies. CO2 flux values oscillated from non detectable to values higher than 25000 g m-2 d-1. On the basis of sequential Gaussian simulations, a mean CO2 emission of ~ 1110 t d-1 was estimated to be released from Furnas Volcano (area ~ 6.2 km2). From this total CO2 emitted, more than 80 % is of hydrothermal origin. This estimation represents only the diffusive contribution of the CO2 flux and do not account for other contributions from fumaroles, bubbling pools or Furnas lake, suggesting that the total CO2 emitted from Furnas Volcano is larger than our estimate.

Abstract #191: Effective CO2 emission mitigation through coal and energy crops co-gasification
Adam Smoliński, Natalia Howaniec

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The efforts of the world research activities involved in clean coal technologies development focus to a considerable extend on the development of integrated hydrogen and power generation technologies based on the process of gasification with CO2 capture. Further improvement in terms of process sustainability may be sought in partial replacement of coal with “green” energy source - biomass. In the paper a study of steam co-gasification of biomass and hard coal, in a laboratory scale fixed bed reactor at the temperature if 900oC are presented. The effectiveness of steam co-gasification of biomass and hard coal blends, in terms of flows and composition of product gas and carbon conversion were studied. Based on the experimental results a conclusion was drawn that the co-gasification of coal and biomass might be considered to be one of the promising ways for hydrogen-rich gas production. Co-gasification of coal and biomass may be considered as contributing to CO2 emission reduction, when compared to fossil fuel gasification, since biomass is claimed to be carbon neutral (CO2 emitted from gasification process is balanced by the amount captured from the atmosphere in the process of photosynthesis).

Session: Satellite Observations
Chair: Daniele Bortoli

Abstract #93: Synergetic use of satellite and ground-based data to analyze the characteristics of urban climate over Rome
Lucia Maria Laurenza

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Over the last century the World has witnessed a huge growth of its population; almost all population growth expected for the World in the next years will be concentrated in the urban areas. The anthropogenic activities induce changes in the physical characteristics of the surface (albedo, thermal capacities, heat conductivity, moisture) and have significant implications for energy budget. The heat retention from artificial surfaces impacts the natural energy balance and can exacerbate existing air pollution conditions. The urban heat island (UHI) is the name given to describe the characteristic warmth of both the atmosphere and the surface in cities compared to their surroundings.
The phenomenon of UHI in the city of Rome was examined. To perform this study AATSR data over Rome and its surroundings were extracted in a period of time covered by ENVISAT mission (2003-2006) along with ground-based data from the ARPA Lazio (Regional Agency for Environmental Protection) environmental monitoring stations. During the night the UHI is particularly significant and UHI development from season to season is clear, with a rise in anomaly strength from winter and reaching a maximum during summer. Having analysed the satellite data we can clearly see that there is a strong urban heat island over Rome, caused mainly by anthropogenic sources, mainly traffic and pollutions, evident because the anomalies are more intense along the main routes, in particular in the South-East of the city.

Abstract #172: Satellite observation of urban heat island effect
Maria A. Zoran

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Remote sensing is a key application in global-change science and urban climatology. Urbanization, the conversion of other types of land to uses associated with growth of populations and economy has a great impact on both micro-climate as well as macro-climate. By integrating high-resolution and medium-resolution satellite imagery with other geospatial information, have been investigated several land surface parameters including impervious surfaces and land surface temperatures for Bucharest metropolitan area in Romania. The aim of this study is to examine the changes in land use/cover pattern in a rapidly changing area of Bucharest metropolitan area in relation to urbanization since the 1989s till 2010 and then to investigate the impact of such changes on the intensity and spatial pattern of the UHI effect in the region. Investigation of radiative properties, energy balance and heat fluxes is based on satellite data provided by various sensors Landsat TM, ETM+, MODIS and IKONOS. This paper demonstrates the potential of moderate-and high resolution, multispectral imagery to map and monitor the evolution of the physical urban environment in relation with micro and macroclimate conditions. So called effect of “urban heat island” must be considered mostly for summer periods conditions and large European scale heat waves.

Abstract #169: Westward propagation of satellite derived chlorophyll a across the South Pacific Ocean
A. Belo do Couto

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Understanding how propagating signals influence phytoplankton distribution at the euphotic layer is a subject of enormous scientific interest. The proposed mechanisms range from meridional advection, uplift/downlift of the community, and upwelling/downwelling of nutrients. These will increase phytoplankton in a specific area by either gathering them or allowing better conditions for reproduction (i.e., increased access to light or nutrients). It is known that ENSO and its associated propagation play a significant role on ocean circulation and climate variability. In the present study we provide empirical evidence of an immediate and lagged influence of ENSO on SeaWiFS and MODIS Aqua derived global Chlorophyll a concentrations (Chl). We demonstrate that the influence of ENSO on phytoplankton dynamics occurs in well defined oceanic regions, which are neither restricted to the Tropical Pacific nor to a specific timeframe. Chl distributions suggest that zonal phytoplankton communities react in different phases to the shoaling/deepening of the thermocline. An analysis of propagating signals suggests that ENSO driven propagation explains a substantial amount of interannual phytoplankton variability throughout the Tropical Pacific. Thus, to better understand the importance of ENSO on phytoplankton distribution, further work has to be done on ENSO driven propagation and its associated dynamics.

11h20 - 13h00
Session: Energy Technologies and Exergy Analysis
Chair: Arif Hepbasli

Abstract #416: Exergetic Sustainability Evaluation of a Recirculating Aquaculture System
Adnan Midilli, Haydar Kucuk, Ibrahim Dincer

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This paper presents exergetic sustainability evaluation of a Recirculating Aquaculture System (RAS). Some environmental and sustainability aspects of the RAS are investigated in terms of exergetic sustainability parameters. In this regard, the exergetic parameters, such as exergetic efficiency, waste exergy ratio, exergy recoverability ratio, exergy destruction ratio, environmental impact factor, and exergetic sustainability index are studied. The results show that increasing waste exergy ratio increases the exergetic efficiency and decreases exergetic sustainability index. However, the environmental impact of the RAS increases as the waste exergy ratio increases. Thus, it can be said that, the RAS requires much more improvement because of the higher environmental impact factor and lower exergetic sustainability index, resulting from the heat gained from the environment, the back water from the components in the system, the increasing quantity of the unused waste, and the high capacity of the pumps based on the fish production capacity of the system.

Abstract #420: Ocean energy: exergy analysis and conversion
Antonio F. Miguel, Murat Aydin

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Ocean stores energy in the form of currents, waves, tides, heat and salinity that can help to alleviate worldwide demand for power and the global climate change threat. Exergy analysis can be applied to evaluate the work potential (extractable) that a resource contains. This paper focuses on the exergy content that can be extracted from ocean reservoirs and provides a review of existing the technology installed for harvesting ocean energy.

Abstract #250: Exergoenvironmental Analysis of a Trigeneration System Based on Micro Gas Turbine and Organic Rankine Cycles
Pouria Ahmadi

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A comprehensive thermodynamic modelling is reported of a trigeneration system for cooling, heating, electricity generation and hot water production. This trigeneration system consists of a gas turbine cycle, an organic Rankine cycle (ORC), a single-effect absorption chiller and a domestic water heater. Energy and exergy analyses, environmental impact assessments and related parametric studies are carried out, and parameters that measure environmental impact and sustainability are evaluated. The exergy efficiency of the trigeneration system is found to be higher than that of typical combined heat and power systems or gas turbine cycles. The results also indicate that carbon dioxide emissions for the trigeneration system are less than for the aforementioned systems. The exergy results show that combustion chamber has the largest exergy destruction of the cycle components, due to the irreversible nature of its chemical reactions and the high temperature difference between the working fluid and flame temperature. The parametric investigations show that the compressor pressure ratio, the gas turbine inlet temperature and the gas turbine isentropic efficiency significantly affect the exergy efficiency and environmental impact of the trigeneration system. Also, increasing the turbine inlet temperature decreases the cost of environmental impact, primarily by reducing the combustion chamber mass flow rate.

Abstract #101: Energy and Exergy Analyses of Cerro Prieto I Geothermal Power Plant
Stuart James Self, Bale V Reddy, Marc A Rosen

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Growing energy demands and the desire to reduce pollution have increased interest in and research on unconventional power plant technologies. Geothermal power plant technology is an important area being explored as a renewable and environmentally benign alternative to fossil fuel technologies. Geothermal power plants have sources of emissions associated with use, including the use of evaporation ponds. An example of a geothermal power generation unit that utilizes an evaporation pond to manage spent geothermal fluids during its operation is the Cerro Prieto I plant in Mexico. A theoretical model is developed to retrofit the plant with geothermal fluid re-injection. Energy and exergy analyses are performed for the standard plant, using the evaporation pond, as well as a hypothetical system utilizing fluid re-injection. The plant without re-injection is found to have an energy efficiency of 12.6% and an exergy efficiency of 47.5%. With re-injection the energy efficiency is 16.5% and the exergy efficiency is 51.5%. The greatest loss in the standard system is through direct discharge of the geothermal fluids to the evaporation pond.

Abstract #254: Exergo-enviromental analysis of renewable heat based Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) using different working fluids
Seyedali Aghahosseini, Ibrahim Dincer

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In this paper, a comprehensive thermodynamic analysis of Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) using different working fluids driven by renewable/waste low-grade heat sources is conducted, and the performance and environmental characteristics of cycle, especially the potential CO2 emission, are investigated. The comparative evaluation of cycle using a combined energy and exergy analysis is performed by varying certain system operating parameters such as efficiencies, mass flow rate, cycle irreversibility and heat input at various temperatures and pressures. Moreover the toxicity, flammability, ODP and GWP of different working fluids besides utilizing renewable heat sources are studied as a safety and environmental assessment. The results from this analysis provide valuable insight into selection of the most suitable fluids for power generating applications using low-temperature heat sources..

Specialized Session: CO2 Storage and Utilization
Chair and organizer: Júlio Carneiro

Abstract #165: Carbon sequestration to mitigate the future climatic changes and its adverse effects
Hossain Md Anawar, S.M. Almeida, N. Canha

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Atmospheric carbon dioxide plays an important role in climate change on the geological time scale. To combate the climatic change and risk of global warming, and to save the planet, it is urgent to reduce and stabilize the concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the earth's atmosphere. This review has mainly studied the possible strategies of carbon sequestration by natural and engineering techniques, and off-setting the GHGs emissions, especially focusing on the long-term storage of carbon in oceans, soils, vegetation, geologic formations, industrial materials, and engineered construction works. Carbon can be sequestrated by absorption of carbon dioxide via physicochemical process and biological pump by phytoplankton, by application of iron nutrients in oceans, and engineering techniques for direct injection in oceans by enhanced dilution by CO2 hydrate particles from the moving ship hydrate discharge. The photosynthesis by terrestrial plants, largest carbon sinks, can augment the carbon sequestration by (1) the increase of forest growth on existing and unmanaged all available lands in the tropical and other regions, (2) the increase of forest or grassland in arid and semiarid regions, desert, semi desert and savanna areas, (3) afforestation of marginal agricultural land, (4) development of forestry or grassland in degraded mining areas, (5) cultivating urban and residential turf grass, (6) preserving forestry in polar region, (7) soil restoration and soil management practices for regenerative agriculture, grassland and pastureland, (8) agroforestry practices and growing energy crops on spare lands. The artificial engineered techniques can be used for carbon sequestration by energy-efficient and energy-capturing building construction, geopolymer cement, capture and storage of industrial carbon emissions, engineered underground geological sequestration along with mineral carbonation of CO2 (e.g., in deep ocean, geological strata, declining oil field, saline aquifer, and unminable coal seam), and construction of landfills and safe-guard wetlands. Engineering techniques are expensive and have leakage risks. In comparison, natural biotic techniques are cost-effective processes and have numerous ancillary benefits. Although all the possible strategies for the carbon sequestration are implemented, it would be difficult to reduce the concentrations of GHGs from atmosphere and mitigate the effects of climatic change, unless the viable strategies are adopted in anthropogenic activities for (1) the lowering of CO2 emissions from energy, fossil fuel combustion, process industry, degrading soil cultivation, land-use change, deforestation, biomass burning, draining of wetlands etc, (2) reducing the global energy use, (3) off-setting CO2 emissions and (4) developing low or no-carbon fuel from bio-diesel and renewable energies of solar, wind and hydraulic power.

Abstract #92: Mitigation Technologies to Lower Greenhouse Gases
Arangasamy Leela, Munusamy Vivekanandan, Murugesh Devatha

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Increasing concentration of green house gases in the atmosphere has already resulted in chaotic weather systems that will have major effects on the coastal ecosystem, and drought and salinity will escalate. Of all the green house gases, the major culprits being CO2 and methane. To bring down the CO2 levels in the atmosphere, spreading of green cover seems to be one of the biological remedies to mitigate the threatening effects of global warming. Photosynthetically four kinds of plants can be recognized such as C3, C4, CAM and C3-C4 intermediates plants, of which C4 is an efficient fixer of atmospheric CO2. In addition, attempts are being made to introduce C4 genes into C3 plants (C3 plants harboring photosynthetic genes such as Phospho-enolpyruvate carboxylase (PEPCase) and pyruvate orthophosphate dikinase (PPdK)) to make them more adoptable to drought, salinity and high temperature the major environmental effects of global warming. Exploitation of the coastal regions for cultivation of many types of seaweeds as vegetables for human consumption, Phytoplankton enrichment both in saline waters of oceanic environment and fresh water will lead to further CO2 depletion in the atmosphere. CAM plants in particular to some extent can take care of respired out CO2 at night.

Abstract #194: Coal as an unconventional reservoir for a CO2 safe geological sequestration solution
Cristina Fernanda Alves Rodrigues, Maria Alzira Pimenta Dinis, Manuel João Lemos de Sousa

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In the last decade, the energy sector has suffered several changes related not only with the decrease of conventional hydrocarbons reserves, i.e. oil and associated natural gas, but also and especially with restrictions imposed by mechanisms in the scope of sustainable environment. The energy dependency is one of the major problems that all countries must deal nowadays, and all the international energy bodies agree that it will be impossible, to the most part of the countries, to become energetically independent. Some international entities advised either governmental parties, as well as, other energy players to develop strategies in different fields in order to reduce external dependency. Additionally, the sustainable energy plan developed by the European Commission is closely related to sustainable environment and consequently to all policies involved in reducing the greenhouse gases effect. In this perspective, and knowing that nowadays it is not yet possible to displace fossil fuels from the energy scenario, it is pertinent to apply new technologies, such as CCS (carbon capture and storage) technologies. One of the current main objectives in CCS technologies deals specifically with CO2 geological storage/sequestration, mostly in depleted oil and gas reservoirs, saline aquifers and in unminable coal seams, the later taking into account the so-called hydrocarbons (CBM) enhanced production.
This paper deals with the study of different coal samples in what concerns their storage and gas circulation capacities. In fact, both processes are highly dependent on physical and chemical properties of coal, which are intimately related to its genetic conditions. As a matter of fact, to understand the mechanisms involved in coal formation process, it is crucial to study in detail the deposition environmental conditions, as well as, the incarbonization process. Moreover, the coal organic components evolution is also directly related to both deposition conditions and the incarbonization process. In terms of petrographic parameters and besides the inorganic components (mineral matter content), the organic compounds of coal correspond to three quite different maceral groups (vitrinite, inertinite and liptinite) and the incarbonization stage, or rank, can be determined by the mean random vitrinite reflectance. All these parameters strongly influence the storage and the gas circulation capacities of a coal, since they can change the pore sizes, as well as, the porous structure organization and therefore the internal surface area.

Abstract #379: CO2 Hydrates as a climate change mitigation strategy: Defini-tion of the Portugal’s deep offshore stability zones
Luís Bernardes

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Storage of CO2 as hydrates in sub-seabed sediments has been pointed out as an alternative solution for the geological storage of CO2, particularly suitable for offshore areas where large ocean depths and low temperatures are reached at short distance from the onshore. This is the case for Portugal, where the continental shelf can be as narrow as 10 km. This paper presents the works conducted to identify the CO2 Hydrates Stability Zone, i.e. the areas where CO2 hydrates may form and remain stable, in the deep offshore of Portugal. The methodology adopted involved building maps of geothermal gradient, temperature of water, detailed bathymetry and conversion to hydrostatic pressure, and maps of sediment thickness. These maps were integrated in a GIS environment and a Fortran code was implemented to compute the thickness of the Hydrate Stability Zone, based on the pressure and the temperature conditions on the sub-seabed sediments. Preferential areas, where further studies should be conducted, were defined based on thickness and thickness variation of the Stability Zone, depth of the water column and distance from the main harbours.

Abstract #111: Heat as by-product or sub-product of CO2 storage in basalt formations
Diogo Rosa, Rui Rosa

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Since carbonates are at a lower energy state than free CO2, storage through carbonation of silicate rocks is thermodynamically favoured and proceeds spontaneously by releasing heat. In an in-situ CO2 injection site, the heat released in these exothermic reactions can be exploited in a geothermal plant, effectively contributing towards the economic viability of the storage process.
Our calculations suggest the possibility of generating up to about 65 TWh of electrical energy while capturing permanently about 1Gton CO2 per 1 km3 of peridotite or basalt rock. That broadly corresponds to exploring an electric power plant having up to 150 MW gross output during a period of 50 years.
These results show that geothermal energy and CO2 storage, often portrayed as conflicting uses of the subsurface, can actually work together, enhancing the economic feasibility of each other in case mafic and/or ultramafic rock formations are used as reservoirs.

14h30 - 15h30
Keynote address 4: "TURBULENCE, CLOUDS AND CLIMATE MODELS: TACKLING THE LARGEST UNCERTAINTY IN CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTIONS ", João Teixeira
Chair: Pedro Viterbo

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In 2007 the IPCC reiterated that clouds remain the largest source of uncertainty in climate projections. Clouds in the atmospheric boundary layer appear to play the key role in cloud-climate feedbacks. Recent studies have highlighted the lack of complete understanding of the properties of the cloudy boundary layer and the fact that current climate models are still far from realistically representing the physics and dynamics of clouds. Recent results regarding the global characterization of clouds from the most modern satellite observations will be presented. The implications in terms of improvements in current global climate models and the reduction of uncertainties in projections of climate change will be discussed in detail.

Biographical Sketch

Joao Teixeira is Deputy Director of the Center for Climate Sciences and Head of the Climate Physics Group at the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), California Institute of Technology. His main research interests are in turbulence, clouds and climate: Using a variety of models and observations to better understand the interactions between the Earth’s climate system and small-scale processes, such as turbulence, convection and clouds.”

15h30 - 17h30
Session: Atmosphere and Climate
Chair: Byeong-Kyu Lee

Abstract #104: Spatial aggregation of surface temperature trends in the last 100 years
António Rodrigues Tomé, Pedro M. A. Miranda

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The world’s surface is clustered according to the centennial evolution of near surface temperature, using a continuous piecewise trend methodology applied to the GISS surface temperature data for the last 100 years. A spatial distribution of the timing of onset of local warming, alongside with the local decadal trends are presented and discussed. Time series of temperature, obtained by averaging only regions with the same temperature low frequency behaviour, are also presented and discussed. The world's globe surface is divided into 5 clusters defined by the surface trend temperature behaviour: (1) first and last period of warming having an cooling period in between (59% of the Earth surface), (2) later warming after a continuous cooling period (11% of the Earth surface), (3) later cooling after an initial warming period (9% of the Earth surface), (4) continuous warming (7.5% of the Earth surface) and (5) first and last periods of cooling having an warming period in between (5.4% of the Earth surface).

Abstract #248: Spring and summer time extreme temperatures in Iberia in relation to circulation types frequency
Sonia Fernández-Montes, Fernando S. Rodrigo, Stefanie Seubert

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In the Iberian Peninsula (IP) the rise of temperatures during last decades has been noticeable, especially in spring and summer seasons. The aim of this study is to identify characteristic circulation types (CTs) conducive to the occurrence of warm extremes and to describe long-term changes both in circulation and in the percentage of associated extremes. A sample of 29 long station series of daily maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperature across the IP are considered for the study. Daily mean Sea Level Pressure reconstructions from the EMULATE project for the period 1850-2003 were classified into daily CTs using a simulated annealing clustering technique, separately for spring (MAM) and summer (JJA). The distinct CTs are examined for their tendency to give rise to daily temperature extremes at each specific location. Moreover, the existence of significant trends in the temporal frequency of the CTs is discussed, as well as their within type temporal variations in association to local extremes.

In both seasons, spring and summer, a warming signal has been detected in specific circulation types: especially in spring, an increasing incidence of high pressure conditions in the north of Iberia together with a warming of CTs indicating westerly and south-westerly flows explain the increase in warm days. In summer there is significant long-term positive trend in strong North Atlantic Anticyclone and Iberian thermal low-type patterns, but most of the warming has to be explained by within-type changes: the same CTs give rise to high temperatures more frequently, especially from around the 1970´s.

Abstract #122: Statistical Approach to Estimate the Impact of Climate Change in Daily Ozone Concentrations
Pedro Garrett Lopes, Mário Pulquério, Elsa Casimiro

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Short-term exposure to ozone is a public health concern worldwide. Tropospheric ozone is a secondary air pollutant, formed primarily through a complex series of photochemical reactions between nitrogen oxides and reactive hydrocarbons. Hot days with clear skies favour ozone production. Hence a warmer climate is likely to increase ozone ambient concentration and consequently the impact of ozone related health effects.

In this paper we present a statistical model that was developed using an additive mixed modelling approach to estimate daily ozone concentrations based on ground level climate variables, ozone precursors and synoptic atmosphere variables from the National Centre of Environmental Prediction. Two future scenarios (A2a and B2a) of daily ozone concentrations were obtained using the global circulation model (GCM) HadCM3 taking also into account local per capita ozone precursor’s emissions and population growth for each scenario.

Abstract #49: Analysis of total ozone trends in the Iberian Peninsula using satellite data
Manuel Anton, Daniele Bortoli, Pavan S. kulkarni, Maria J. Costa, Ana F. Domingues, Ana M. Silva, Lucas Alados-Arboledas

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This work is focused on the study of the total ozone column (TOC) trends over the Iberian Peninsula during the last 30 years (1979-2009). This analysis is carried out using satellite TOC data and it is divided into two sub-periods in order to detect changes in the ozone trend pattern: from 1979 to 1994 using the NASA Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) and from 1995 to 2009 by means of the ESA Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME). The analysis of the long-term ozone trends is performed using annual mean time series derived from the average of the deseasonalized monthly TOC series. The results show that the ozone depletion was statically significant at the 95% confidence level during the first sub-period (1979-1994) in the entire region of study, with linear trends from -4.5 %/decade to -2.9 %/decade. These linear trends presented a clear dependence on latitude, being higher for the Northerner locations than for the Southerner. By contrast, the analysis of the second sub-period of study (1995-2009) presented positive ozone trends from +0.6 %/decade to +1.8 %/decade (only statically significant in four of nine locations of study), indicating that the ozone layer may be responding as expected to the controls on ozone-depleting substances imposed by the Montreal Protocol. Additionally, a seasonal trend analysis is performed using the average of the deseasonalized monthly values for each season of the year. The seasonal analysis showed that while the negative ozone trends during the first sub-period of study were statically significant in the springtime and summertime, the positive seasonal trends during the second sub-period did not show any statistically significance.

Abstract #177: Impact of Maritime Air Mass Trajectories on the Western European Coast Urban Aerosol
Susana Almeida, Maria Carmo Freitas, Ana Isabel Silva, Alexandra Silva, Cátia Repolho, Ho Manh Dung, Alexandre Caseiro, Casimiro Pio

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Lisbon is the largest urban area in the Western European coast. Due to this geographical position, the Atlantic Ocean is an important source of particles and plays an important role in many atmospheric processes. The main objectives of this work were 1) to perform a chemical characterization of PM2.5 sampled in Lisbon, 2) to identify the main sources of particles and to determine their contribution to this urban area and 3) to assess the impact of maritime air mass trajectories on the concentration and composition of respirable particles sampled in Lisbon. During 2007, PM2.5 was collected on a daily basis in the centre of Lisbon with a Partisol sampler. The exposed teflon filters were measured by gravimetry and were cut into two parts: one was analysed by Instrumental Neutron Activation Analysis and the other by Ion Chromatography. Principal Component Analysis and Multilinear Regression Analysis were used to identify possible sources of PM2.5 and to determine their mass contribution. Five main groups of sources were identified: secondary aerosols, traffic, a source of calcium, soil and sea. Four days backward trajectories, ending in Lisbon, at the starting sampling time were calculated with the Hysplit Model. Results showed that maritime transport scenarios were very frequent. These episodes were characterized by a significant decrease of anthropogenic aerosol concentrations and had a significant role on the air quality from this urban area.

Abstract #54: Application of KLIMA algorithm to CO2 retrieval from IASI/METOP-A observations and comparison with GOSAT/TANSO-FTS products
Lucia Maria Laurenza, Ugo Cortesi, Samuele Del Bianco

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— This project aims at the application of the KLIMA inversion algorithm, optimally suited for CO2 retrieval and integrated into the ESA GPOD (Grid Processing On-Demand) operational environment, to processing Level-1 data acquired by the IASI instrument onboard the METOP-A satellite and at the retrieval of carbon dioxide columns for comparison and cross-validation with GOSAT TANSO-FTS Level-2 data. The activities included in this study are: the adaptation of the KLIMA algorithm for the retrieval of CO2 column from IASI spectra; a sensitivity assessment and evaluation of the performances of the optimized KLIMA-IASI code for CO2 retrieval; the integration of the KLIMA-IASI inversion code on the ESA GRID-based operational environment G-POD (Grid Processing On-Demand); the processing of IASI Level 1 data using the KLIMA-IASI/G-POD retrieval code and a final comparison and cross validation of KLIMA-IASI CO2 products along with GOSAT/TANSO-FTS operational products. For the performance of the retrieval a target accuracy of 0.3% (1 ppmv out of 370 ppmv) on regional scales (1000 x 1000 km) at monthly intervals was assumed as reference value. The KLIMA-IASI retrieval code integration on G-POD has been completed and is now available for bulk processing of IASI data to be compared with TANSO-FTS measurement products for validation purposes. The consolidated version of the KLIMA-IASI code on G-POD will be then made available to all interested users.

Specialized Session: Networking and Technology Transfer on Climate Change and Renewable Energy
Chair and organizer: Walter Leal

Abstract #267: Networking and technology transfer on climate change:the international climate change information programme
Walter Leal

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The last ten years have seen a particularly intense increase in the degree of emphasis to climate issues as a whole and in the level of attention paid to climate change in particular. Finding practical, workable and cost-efficient solutions to the problems posed by Climate Change is now a world priority and one which links government and non-government organisations as well as the general public in a way not seen before. But even though climate change is a matter of great scientific relevance and of broad general interest, there are many problems related to its communication.

The understanding about the causes, consequences and means to tackle climate change is one of the most important challenges of modern times. Without a holistic understanding of the problem and its various ramifications, there can be no effective handling of the problem, nor can long-term solutions be sought. This paper outlines the need for better information, networking and technology transfer on climate change. It describes the International Climate Change Information Programme (IICIP), as well as its activities and projects, which ultimately aim to support the on-going efforts towards the search for solutions for the problems associated with climate change, an issue which is global in nature, but which needs to be supported by concrete regional and local efforts.

Abstract #209: CELA - Network of Climate Change Technology Transfer Centres in Europe and Latin America
Franziska Mannke

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Based on experiences gained in the frame of the climate project CELA funded in the context of the European Commission ALFA III Programme, this paper focuses on networking and technology transfer in the field of climate change between Latin America and Europe to illustrate how higher education institutions (HEI) can contribute to sustainable socio-economic development in Latin America. The paper will provide evidence for the fact that, despite the fact that many Latin American states have given climate change adaptation a high priority, the same states often have neither the technology nor the resources needed in order to adapt successfully. Also, to cope with the many challenges climate change poses, the role of HEIs, especially in terms of research, consultancy and technology transfer as well as the capacity-building and qualification of human capital within the HEI and beyond, will be explored further. Finally, the paper will introduce a university-industry networking project which fosters the transnational transfer of climate change technology between Europe and Latin America and concludes by indicating some emerging themes which ought to be tackled to foster adaptation to climate change in this region.

Abstract #246: The Role of Renewable Energy in addressing the Challenge of Climate Change in the Pacific Region
Veronika Schulte

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This paper is based on the experiences gained by “The Small Developing Island Renewable Energy Knowledge and Technology Transfer Network (DIREKT)”, which is a cooperation scheme involving universities from Germany, Fiji, Mauritius, Barbados, and Trinidad and Tobago, with the aim of strengthening science and technology capacity in the field of renewable energy of a sample of ACP (Africa, Caribbean, Pacific) small island developing states, by means of technology transfer, information exchange and networking. Developing countries are especially vulnerable to problems associated with climate change and much can be gained by raising their capacity in the field of renewable energy, which is a key area. The project is funded by the ACP Science and Technology Programme, an EU programme for cooperation between the European Union and the ACP region (Africa, Caribbean, Pacific). This paper discusses the contribution that can be made by renewable energy as a tool in addressing the challenge of climate change on a global level. It shows the extent to which renewable energy systems are being used in order to satisfy current energy demands and which positive effects have been achieved with these measures. The paper also discusses some of the empirical evidence available and outlines some of the actions currently being taken in the Pacific region. Finally, it summarises some of the lessons learned from the Pacific region and lists some of the challenges and measures that need to be implemented in order to achieve a better integration between the use of renewable energy and climate change goals in the Pacific region.

Abstract #67: Vulnerability and Impact of climate change on water resources in semi-arid areas; example of the Essaouira Basin (Morocco)
Mohammed Bahir

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Essaouira synclinal area is part of the semi-arid areas of Morocco that are subject to the impact of climatic and human pressures. In the case of this coastal area, which includes two main aquifers superimposed; the Plio-Quaternary and Turonian, the resulting vulnerability is compounded by the risk of infiltration navy. The Rainfall in the area does not exceed 300 mm year-1, the average temperature hovers around 20 ° C, the piezometric map of Essaouira synclinal basin was made, different water samples have been collected from October 2009 after exceptional rainfall, all waters are sodium-chloride facies, interpretation of mineralization indicates power by the Ksob Wadi in the northeast and increasing levels of chlorides in the central part generated by the Essaouira diaper hidden. Excessive levels of nitrates have been identified, as well as chlorides after rains of winter 2009. The electrical conductivity and concentrations of 18O and 2H were measured, a local meteoric water line was determined according to the Atlantic origin of precipitation. The Essaouira Basin is more vulnerable to drought because its climate is entirely dependent on recharge meteoric waters.

Abstract #170: Impact of Climate Change on the Energy System at the Santiago Metropolitan Region
Luis Santiago Vargas

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This paper describes the methodology and results from the analysis of climate scenarios and their impact on hydrometeorological variables and the energy system in the Metropolitan Region of Santiago, Chile´s capital city. Data are reported for historical and future scenarios. Meteorological data were obtained from meteorological stations and water resources administration, and GCM climate projections were obtained from globally available sources (A2-worst case and B1-best case scenarios). For future scenarios, a standard, simple downscaling methodology based on the probability distribution of each variable was used. A special study on the impact on the energy system was carried out. Overall results indicate that in the near future (2045-2065 period) Santiago will be a dryer, hotter city, with a high number of days with extreme temperatures, increased drought during the winter and summer, and lower life quality indexes derived from climate change effects. In the energy sector a decrease in the hydropower electricity is expected as well as a change in patterns of consumption with a shift in the peak demand, which will impose a growing stress on the longitudinal transmission network of the country.

Abstract #394: How can we feed nine billion people while reducing GHG emissions?
Bruce Campbell, Sonja Vermeulen, James Hansen, Andrew Jarvis, Phil Thornton, Eva Wollenberg

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Global warming will have far-reaching consequences for agriculture that will disproportionately affect poor and marginalized groups who depend on agriculture for their livelihoods and have a lower capacity to adapt. Sustainable food security in a world of growing population and changing diets is a major challenge under climate change. A recent study estimates the annual costs of adapting to climate change in the agricultural sector to be over US$ 7¬ billion. Agriculture and related activities also contribute to global warming with agriculture estimated to account for about a third of global GHG emissions. This paper makes the case for heightened focus on agriculture if the triple challenge of adaptation, mitigation and food security are going to be achieved. It suggests four key areas for research and action: understanding trade-offs amongst adaptation, mitigation and food security; implementing accelerated adaptation strategies; enhanced climate risk management; trialling and testing agricultural mitigation options that don't compromise food security. In the conclusions we call for a new “green agriculture”.